In modern conditions it is necessary to be prepared for all possible scenarios of development of trade relations with traditional economic partners of Russia. With us there is a real trade war, and enterprises need state support, not to fight alone. The number of antidumping investigations is increasing from year to year, as well as the number of various constraints. If before them were dozens of them in recent years already in the hundreds.
For example, since 2008, when about any sanctions against Russia and the question was not, are fighting for the European market of ferrosilicon. The European Commission has introduced protective tariffs, and the Russian suppliers are trying unsuccessfully to protest. Claims to the European Commission or rejected or their review delayed. Chelyabinsk integrated electrometallurgical plant in June 2014 started a new series of positional battles to challenge the decision of the European Commission.
Previously, in 2012-2013, the courts have gone through the trader CHEMK company RFA International, even earlier, in 2011 there were joint claims of c JSC "Kuznetsk ferroalloys".
In 2013, Russia supplied the EU ferro-alloy in an amount exceeding 1 billion USD in cash and in real terms 20% less supply a year earlier. The main exports are ferromanganese, ferrochromium and ferrosilicon. CHEMK is the largest enterprise for production of ferroalloys in Russia. And if you consider ferrosilicon, here CHEMK almost monopoly, so the chances for cancellation of the decision of the European Commission quite illusory. When the first place the policy, it is always easier to deal with one player than with a bunch of small vendors.
Today, Russia can export about 400 thousand tons of ferrosilicon per year, while the European price at the end of October 1175 dollars per ton equivalent to us $ 470 million. USA. Overall demand is stable, and even has a tendency to rise, and this time not only at the expense of China. In all developed countries, the production of ferrous metals increased compared to the same period last year, which means increased consumption of ferroalloys. Until the end of the year 2 months will not be too disastrous, because the decline in world oil prices, decreased logistics costs of the industry (this applies to all, except Russia).
To mitigate other possible impacts on other sub-sectors of ferrous metallurgy, urgent action is needed from the state. We need to act in advance, and not later, when you do anything it will be too late. Total exports of the ferrous metallurgy enterprises of Russia in the EU and the USA is at the level of $ 10 billion. USA. On the one hand, the amount is not so big if we consider the whole volume of Russian export. On the other hand, cannot be excluded in a scenario of expansion of sanctions implementation of a Domino effect on the domestic market, in metallurgy and related industries. Our Chinese friends are happy to fill the niche of Russia, if the Western countries will allow them to do it.
It is urgent to develop and adopt the 2015 State program on stimulation of demand for metal products on the domestic market: defense contracts, road construction, housing construction, mechanical engineering. Potential growth of consumption of metal – up to 5-7 million tons in the first year. The amount of resources required to start programs by $ 1 trillion. RUB It and a lot and a little at a time. As you know, Rosneft requested 2 trillion. from the national welfare Fund. Only lazy kicked the oil giant. Assessing the macroeconomy, it is obvious that this is the correct position of any industry, unless it protects their interests. The same position should have the Russian metallurgy, because metallurgy is 400 thousand jobs and company towns, around which revolves the whole local economy.
The focus should be government programs to stimulate demand in the transport engineering by stimulating the upgrade of outdated in car building, shipbuilding, automotive industry and agricultural engineering. Growth potential growth in steel consumption in these sectors from 1 to 7 million tons of ferrous metals per year. The amount of resources required to launch programs from RUB 500 bln.
Raw material suppliers are increasingly complaining of the increased terms of payment on the part of metallurgists 45-60 days are not uncommon. The necessary financial support of metallurgical enterprises at the expense of new loans and interest-free loans. The overall resources required from 300 to 900 billion rubles per year.