By the beginning of December a positive impact held November 6 US presidential election at the national steel market has virtually stopped. Distributorsa companies and end consumers, having bought in November, significant volumes of steel production, again decreased the activity. According to analysts, they are now back on the market only in January. At the same time, the us steel companies rushed to increase production volumes after the October pause. So part of their production remained unclaimed.
From mid-October the us flat rolled producers announced two or three higher valuations totaling $100-155 per metric so If their initiatives are successful, the cost of hot rolled coils in the domestic market would have reached the level of $740-750 / t EXW. However, the maximum level was $695-705 per ton EXW at the end of November. In December, when demand went down, some suppliers had to make concessions. The result is a lower bound of the price interval down to about $10 per ton.
The current state of the us economy makes a contradictory impression. On the one hand, in recent years the situation has improved in the labour market. In November, the official unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, its lowest level over the past four years. The Federal reserve continues to pump the financial system with money, buying banks ' distressed securities. On the other hand, in the real sector, the ongoing slowdown. In particular, stopped the rise in oil and gas sector. According to the official forecast of the Ministry of energy of the USA, in 2013 gas production in the country will not exceed the level of the current year. In late November – early December American pipe producers were forced to admit the failure of another attempt to raise quotes for its products.
In the U.S. construction industry, there is a seasonal downturn. Due to limited demand for U.S. producers of long products are unable in November to implement their planned increase in the value of its products in accordance with the rise in price of scrap metal. In December, the U.S. scrap market looks very unstable. At the beginning of the month rose up quotes for lower-quality material, while other varieties are stagnating, and in some regions even experiencing a decrease. In this regard, analysts predict the relative constancy of the quotations for rebar and wire rod in December. Thus, a significant impact on the American market have offers of Turkish rebar and wire rod in the Chinese, which is listed (including shipping) for $60-80 per ton lower than similar products produced locally.
On the flat rolled product market competition from foreign suppliers below. Russian hot rolled coils, at least until the end of the year (and likely in the future) will not be available to American customers due to the high minimum prices of certain inmates in November in the agreement is $601 per ton FOB. Chinese products are not in demand due to poor quality and long delivery time. Many consumers believe that in the future, rental prices will go down, and so I try to make deals just to meet current needs.
The concerns of market participants related to the so-called "fiscal cliff" (fiscal cliff), from which the national economies may fall next year, when will stop the action introduced at the beginning of 2009 tax incentives for business, and funding of some state programs will be reduced in order to deal with the budget deficit. The cumulative effect of these actions is estimated at $600 billion.
While the presidential administration and the Republican opposition was not able to find a compromise solution that would mitigate the impact of "cliff". Republicans absolutely do not like the initiative of President Barack Obama's increase in taxes for wealthy families who earn more than $250 thousand in annual revenue, and the President, for his part, does not accept the proposals of the Republicans on radical reduction of social programs. And although most experts believe that policy sooner or later agree with each other, and the negative impact of "cliff" on the economy will not be instantaneous, but stretched, so that no disaster in January will not happen, however, most consumers of steel products are cautious.
Company Nucor in early December, tried to counter the negative trends by announcing another price increase for flat-rolled products by $20 per short ton ($22 per metric ton). However, apparently, the special effects will not make, even if it was supported by other major manufacturers. The "roller coaster" seems to be a relatively smooth area.
 
Victor Tarnavsky
Rusmet.ru